Market watch & test device recommendation june 2014

A little late but here is the update with the latest market watch. Not too much new smartphones but still some nice trends:

  • Blackberry is officially gone
  • High-end smartphones have a large enough screen size for people to skip the phablets
  • Windows Phone remains stable and offers still mainly low-cost devices
  • Windows RT is also officially gone, apparently people prefer a full Windows 8 tablet
  • Samsung is losing to Huawei, LG and Sony
  • Android marketshare in tablets is growing but mainly due to low cost devices

Based on the offerings from Dutch telecom providers and (online) shops the following market share prediction can be made for smartphones:

smartphone_manufacturer_0614

smartphone_os_0614

And for tablets:

tablet_manufacturer_0614

tablet_os_0614

And of course the fifth edition of the list with recommend test devices you should use a minimum to test their mobile apps on the different platforms. This list will be enhanced each quarter. This quarter only two additions:  Samsung Trend and LG G3.

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Market watch & test device recommendation march 2014

It has been very quiet for a few months but here is our quarterly update again. Not much changed compared to last quarter. One disappointing observation however: telecom providers are pushing Android 2.3 prepaid models again, will it ever stop? Windows phone remains stable with only low cost prepaid models. Windows tablet remains stable but only because of aggressive price cuts on the Microsoft Surface 1 models.

Based on the offerings from Dutch telecom providers and (online) shops the following market share prediction can be made for smartphones:smartphone_manufacturer_0314smartphone_os_0314

And for tablets:tablet_manufacturer_0314tablet_os_0314

And of course the fourth edition of the list with recommend test devices you should use a minimum to test their mobile apps on the different platforms. This list will be enhanced each quarter. This quarter there quit a few additions:  new high-end Samsung devices.Screen Shot 2014-04-05 at 1.36.46 PM

Market watch & test device recommendation december 2013

I’ve neglected my blog for a few months, but of course there is at least one update each quarter: the market watch. Looking at the numbers there are a few changes when compared to the previous quarter:

  • LG is making a big push at the cost of Sony, Huawei and HTC
  • Samsung is extending their marketshare even further
  • New iPhone 5S gives Apple a little bigger slice
  • Android 2.3 is officially gone now (except 1 prepaid model)
  • Blackberry has vanished from the Dutch consumer market (BB10 didn’t make it)
  • Windows Phone marketshare is completely based on Lumia 520 and Huwaei W1 phones and the question is how often apps are downloaded and used on these phones
  • Life becomes easier for developers: for almost the entire smartphone market just support iOS6+ and Android 4.x. Windows Phone might not be that interesting for earning money or reaching customers
  • Windows Phone marketshare remains low in the Dutch market which is odd when you look at the  German and UK market where Windows Phone is twice as big
  • Microsoft tablets are gaining marketshare due to clearing old surface stock for low prices and Asus making a push with full Windows 8.1 devices for a low price
  • Number of tablet manufactures is decreasing, Sony and the cheap Solara and Yarviks are gone
  • Asus is making a big leap with both Windows 8.1 and Android tablet devices
  • iOS remains stable due to new devices where Android is losing marketshare to Windows. Not the RT version but the full versions of Windows.

Based on the offerings from Dutch telecom providers and (online) shops the following market share prediction can be made for smartphones:

smartphone_manufacturer_1213

smartphone_os_1213

And for tablets:

tablet_manufacturer_1213

tablet_os_1213 

And of course the third edition of the list with recommend test devices you should use a minimum to test their mobile apps on the different platforms. This list will be enhanced each quarter. This quarter there quit a few additions: the new Apple devices with 64bit processors, new Samsung devices and the Motorola Moto G which is prime example of a new trend: cheap devices with mid to high range specs.

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Market watch & test device recommendation september 2013

This is the second market watch post. So, what’s changed from the previous quarter? These are likely to be the trends:

  • Sony and Huawei are gaining smartphone marketshare (devices added on test device recommendation list)
  • Apple gains a little with the iPhones (clearing iPhone 4 stock?)
  • Samsung drops a little (no new exciting models?)
  • Android 2.3 is now almost finished (but we need to support it at least another year in development)
  • Windows Phone remains stable but shifted from high end (Nokia 920) to low end (Nokia 520 & Huawei W1) smartphones
  • Blackberry Playbook is dead
  • Asus and Samsung are the winners for Android tablets
  • iPad keeps it large marketshare
  • Windows RT is losing marketshare despite price drops

Based on the offerings from Dutch telecom providers and (online) shops the following market share prediction can be made for smartphones:

smartphone_manufacturer_0913

smartphone_os_0913

And for tablets:

tablet_manufacturer_0913

tablet_os_0913

 

And of course the second edition of the list with recommend test devices you should use a minimum to test their mobile apps on the different platforms. This list will be enhanced each quarter.

Screen Shot 2013-09-29 at 11.45.11 AM

The future of Windows Phone

This week Microsoft bought the mobile phone branch from Nokia. Nokia is the only mobile phone maker fully committed to Windows Phone and sells three-quarter of the Windows phones worldwide. There is a lot of speculation about why Microsoft bought Nokia but my take on it is: Nokia wanted to start building Android phones and/or Nokia is in financial problems. Microsoft additionally buying 2B in Nokia bonds is a clear signal of financial problems at Nokia. Nokia needs that money really hard for paying Siemens in the NSN buy-out. But whatever the reasons are Microsoft needed to secure the future of Windows Phone. The ‘success’ of Windows Phone is really down to the effort of Nokia. If I look at the statistics of my Photocasa Gallery app in the marketplace this becomes quite clear. Every uptick in downloads is initiated by the launch and promotions of a new Nokia phones.

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The big question now is: will Microsoft be able to continue and enhance the Nokia successes? Of course the Windows Phone development team and Lumia developers are now within one company but are they able to create better products. However it will be very difficult for Microsoft to make it a success. A lot of talent from Nokia is already leaving the company. The lead designer left and a group of Nokia employees already established a new smartphone company named Newkia. An even bigger problem will be that those who stay will lose that all important focus on the market because of internal restructuring. But the biggest challenge is losing the Nokia brand name. Nokia is world famous and has a good reputation. Customers won’t buy Lumia phones because they had good experiences with them in the past. The Lumia name is simply too small and too new.

It’s also interesting to see how Samsung, Huawei and HTC are going to react. Will the stop support Windows Phone platform? It’s hard to compete against Lumia phones when they are from Microsoft itself. Don’t forget Windows Phone is not free. My guess is that Samsung at least will keep a Windows Phone in their product lineup to see early on what the completion does. And the final challenge is keeping the carriers aboard. They now longer deal with Nokia for smartphones but with Microsoft, the owner of their biggest rival: Skype.

So where should Microsoft focus on? Looking at the market and statistics they should focus on first time users in emerging economies with low end smartphones.  That’s the only place to really gain market share. If you look at my chart you see the biggest jumps when the cheap 520 and 620 (I use the 620 for development and somehow like that phone pretty much. Not enough to trade in for my iphone for daily use but it’s a nice phone) phones were introduced. The same we can see from AdDuplex statistics.  Gaining market share is very important to attract developers for the platform to solve the lack of apps issue with Windows Phone.

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As you can see there is a difficult road ahead for Microsoft and their Lumia smartphones. My personal opinion is that they will not be able to become as big as Android or Apple and their global market share will never be over 10%. And for Nokia? Well they will be a healthy network company, which has 30 months for developing a new Nokia smartphone. (Nokia is contractually not allowed to enter the smartphone market for 30 months) Their brand will still be strong over 30 months and their relationship with telecom providers is still in place because of the networks business. Could we see a new Nokia smartphone in 30 months running Tizen or Android?